Stormy Thanksgiving holiday

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TULSA, Oklahoma – Cool and windy weather is expected on Wednesday before some showers may form again on Thanksgiving.

Here are the details from News On 6 Meteorologist Alan Crone:

Temps and rain chances

The evolution of the main upper layer over this period seems to finally converge on a consistent basis in the data. The strong low will sink over the Rockies on Wednesday, dip south into eastern New Mexico on Thursday and slowly move east across central Texas on Friday before ejecting from northeastern Oklahoma on Saturday afternoon. Cold air aloft, directly below the column, supports accumulating snow over the high plains of Texas and possibly a small area in far western Oklahoma. The thermal profiles support all liquid precipitation for the eastern half of Oklahoma with this system. We continue to watch for signs of colder air overhead that could bring some snow, but right now it seems unlikely.

Wednesday highlights

The timing of the system should provide a few periods of higher local chances for rain. The first arrives later on Wednesday evening on Thursday morning and the second arrives late Friday evening on Saturday morning. These book end times will show the highest probability. Some rain or bubbly chances will remain midway through this period, but they will be lower and some locations will remain dry. While dynamic energy is strong with this system, surface instability is lacking with higher values ​​positioned far south of the region. So no major storm formation is expected. Enough heightened instability remains for a few thunderstorms, especially later tonight and early Thursday morning in southeastern Oklahoma.

Thanksgiving Prediction

In this system there is a period with locally high precipitation potential. Currently that would be late Friday evening to early Saturday as the main upper trough moves across the northeast of OK. Hopefully this downpour will come after Friday night football games, but it will be a close call. Late Friday night, rain is likely to fall into early Saturday morning as a moderate shower moves north from the south. This band leaves by noon to noon, but some rain showers are possible on Saturday afternoon. Sunday will be dry with a gusty north wind.

Rain zone Wednesday

Temperatures have dropped further in the data over the past few days and we have continued to lower the readings by a few degrees. Thanksgiving Day has highs in the lower to mid-50s. Friday’s range of afternoon highs will be narrow, with higher 40s to lower 50s likely. Depending on the exact timing, Saturday can also stay above 40 and below 50 in the afternoon.

Rain zone Thursday

Early next week, the pattern will allow a brief return to much warmer weather before our next strong upper trough moves into the center of the country and brings a cold front across the state on Tuesday evening or Wednesday. Temps Monday reach highs in the mid-60s with increasing southwesterly winds. Tuesday afternoon readings in the lower 70s will be reachable with strong southerly winds at 20 to 30 mph before the cold front moves across the state by noon and evening. By noon and evening, storm chances will develop along and off this border, including the advance report of some strong to near severe storms. During this period, a strong low plain will be ejected from the Rockies into the upper Midwest with stronger dynamics aloft also slightly to the north. Either way, a few strong to severe storms are possible in this pattern. Very cold air will move over the northern half of the country next week. We will see a return to some cold conditions towards the latter part of the week.

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super fun day!

Alan Crone


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