Sadly, for the last time this season, I’m sharing my favorite spots for this week’s college football games. as I have done every Wednesday for the past two months.
Hopefully we can avoid the regression monster for one last week and keep it rolling until the buzzer of the regular season. However, there will always be difficult weeks during this performance, so please bet responsibly.
In the end, the actual spread value still prevails. No matter how great a situational spot looks on paper, you still have to consider the value of the number. A good or bad spot might affect me in some way for a bet I’m about to make, but it’s certainly more art than science.
My primary goal is to simply help you make one or two of those same tough betting decisions while sharing a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each specific game.
Week 13 Situational Spots for College Football ⋅ Saturday afternoon
Last week’s 12 places finished 7-5 to level the six-week tally 39-16-1 (70.9%). For Week 13, I’ve highlighted my top 10 college football bets, which span Friday and Saturday:
- Friday November 25: 12pm – 7:30pm ET (3 choices)
- Saturday afternoon: 12pm – 4pm ET (4 choices)
- Saturday night 7:30 PM – 10:30 PM ET (3 choices)
This particular article focuses on my three favorite places from College football on Saturday afternoon. Find my top Friday and Saturday night picks through the articles below:
This is the James Maidson Dukes’ de facto Super Bowl, as the Dukes are not eligible to play postseason games during the transition to the FBS. That also prevents JMU from winning the Sun Belt.
If it weren’t for that stupid NCAA rule for new FBS teams, the winner of this matchup would go to the Sun Belt Conference title. I’m sure the Dukes want to make a big statement in their season finale.
Since JMU is not eligible, the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers are already locked in the SBC title game. The team has nothing to play for and will be without star quarterback Grayson McCall. He is arguably worth more for the spread than any other player in college football based on the drop off for his replacement.
In addition, James Madison has an elite defense. That’s why I’m not sure how the Chants will move it consistently through the air without McCall.
I think JMU is jumping to a lead and not giving up.
Coastal Carolina has not finished as an underdog by more than 10 points since 2019.
This is a tough spot for the Buffalo Bulls after watching Ohio clinch the division on Tuesday night. That ruined any chance the Bulls had of making the MAC championship.
With the Bulls’ game against Akron being moved to next week, Buffalo no longer needs this game to qualify for the six-win bowl.
I also see a lot of value in this line; in fact, I have rated the Kent State Golden Flashes as the better overall team.
However, I haven’t placed a bet on the Golden Flashes yet, as we don’t know the status of quarterback Collin Schlee, who was injured last game.
Also, one or both of their star wideouts may sit out in a game that means nothing to them. If they’re all out, I’ll probably pass.
Elsewhere in MAC, I’ll take the same approach with Akron +10 depending on the status of quarterback DJ Irons. If he can go, this is a decent match for the Zips with a bit of a blown line.
Since 2005, Buffalo has excelled at home MAC play from an ATS perspective. Over that span, the Bulls have gone 41-25-2 ATS (62.1%), recording more than a field goal per game. Only Wake Forest and Kansas State were more profitable.
In this I faded the UTSA Roadrunners last season exactly the same situation.
A week after clinching a home game for the Conference USA Championship, UTSA fielded a five-win North Texas team battling for bowl eligibility. The Mean Green won in a big way after UTSA sat down starting quarterback Frank Harris and other players during the second half.
The same thing played out this season after the Roadrunners won it all last week. Meanwhile, the UTEP miners must win by five wins to record a second straight bowl game appearance. That achievement would be very meaningful to the UTEP program.
Besides the mismatch in motivation, UTSA could bench a few key players or do a vanilla attack that doesn’t show much while limiting Harris’s runs. The staff probably also spent most of the week preparing for the conference championship.
The road team has historically dominated this head-to-head game. UTEP is 0-5 ATS at home to UTSA but 3-1 ATS in San Antonio, including a pair of outright wins as double-digit underdogs.
Back to the pit again to let the TCU Horned Frogs fade after their thrilling last-second victory over Baylor to keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive.
That should sound familiar to a TCU team that has been living on the edge for the past two and a half months. Now the Horned Frogs must get up for the Iowa State Cyclones – TCU’s 10th game in as many weeks with absolutely no freebies during that stretch.
During TCU’s nine-game winning streak after the team’s early bye, the Horned Frogs have won only one game by more than 10 points. That came against an Oklahoma Sooners team that lost starting quarterback Dillon Gabriel in the first half.
In addition, this schedule gauntlet has led to a number of injuries for TCU. Quarterback Max Duggan continues to struggle with a nagging injury.
TCU made its comeback against Baylor last week without three of its best offensive weapons: leading rusher Keandre Miller (1188 yards), starting slot Darius Davis and star wideout Quentin Johnston, who is arguably the best WR in the country.
All three players will probably be fit on Saturday, but that’s no guarantee – and they certainly won’t be 100%.
This will also be the best defense TCU has faced all season, and it’s not like the offense is firing on all cylinders right now. I have the Iowa State Defense ranked fourth nationally.
The Clones have no weaknesses on that side of the ball; they especially excel at taking away explosive play, which could spell trouble for the Frogs.
Granted, Iowa State’s offense isn’t very good, but its elite defense has kept head coach Matt Campbell going in every game.
It is almost impossible to build margin against the Cyclones.
TCU has not won more than 10 points against an opponent other than Oklahoma; in stark contrast, Iowa State has lost no more than 10 points to any team other than the Sooners.
Take a look at Iowa State’s six league losses by an average of four points per game:
- 31-24 against Baylor
- Kansas 14-11
- 10-9 against Kansas State
- Kansas 24-21
- 20-14 in the state of Oklahoma
- 14-10 against Texas Tech
Unlike TCU, Iowa State has been very unlucky in its close games. This looks like another exciting game for both teams – and one way or another, TCU is likely to win again. I’m happy to take double digits with the Clones in what their Super Bowl will be, though, since they’re not going to a bowl.
Matt Campbell has a 14-3 ATS (82.4%) record as a double-digit underdog, scoring 8.25 points per game. That includes an absurd 11-1 ATS mark in conference games.