• A big game for the New York Giants: The Giants have an 80% chance of making the playoffs with a Week 12 win against the Dallas Cowboys. Their chance drops to 52% on loss.
• The game we all want to see (again): There’s a 35% chance we’ll see a playoff game between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen.
• The rebirth of the NFC East: There is an 89% chance that three teams from the NFC East will make the playoffs.
Estimated reading time: 4 minutes
The 2022 NFL season is now halfway through, so it’s time to look forward to the playoffs.
Each week, PFF will showcase actual and projected playoff photos, focusing on the teams looking good and the way forward for the teams on the outside.
Current AFC playoff standings
- Kansas City Leaders (8-2)
- Miami Dolphins (7-3)
- Tennessee Titans (7-3)
- Baltimore Ravens (7-3)
- Buffalo bills (7-3)
- New England Patriots (6-4)
- Cincinnati Bengals (6-4)
Current standings of the NFC playoffs
- Philadelphia Eagles (9-1)
- Minnesota Vikings (8-2)
- San Francisco 49ers (6-4)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-5)
- Dallas Cowboys (7-3)
- New York Giants (7-3)
- Seattle Seahawks (6-4)
If this holds, we would welcome two different AFC teams (Ravens and Dolphins) and three different NFC teams (Vikings, Seahawks, Giants) to this year’s postseason.
The Dolphins (2017) and Giants (2016) would end long playoff droughts.
Of course, the picture of the playoffs is unlikely to remain constant for the rest of the season. And that’s why it makes sense to go to the projected playoff photo — the estimated chances that PFF gives each team to make the playoffs.
The following charts show the projected playoff odds for each team in addition to the playoff leverage, i.e. how the playoff odds would change with a win or a loss.
The logos show the current playoff chances. The dots to the right of the logos indicate the odds after a win and the dots to the left the odds after a loss.
AFC PLAYOFF CHANCES
NFC PLAYOFF OPPORTUNITIES
TEAMS WITH THE MOST AT Stake IN WEEK 12
|Team||Opportunities with profit||Chances of Losing||Lever|
|New York fighter jets||59%||31%||28%|
|New York giants||80%||52%||28%|
|New England patriots||66%||39%||27%|
|Bengal from Cincinnati||78%||51%||27%|
The races of the AFC East and NFC West division
The two closest league races in the NFL currently take place in the AFC East and the NFC West. Here’s how the odds stack up in the AFC East:
And this is how the NFC West should shake out:
The dream of a perfect season is over for the Eagles. Still, home field advantage is practically the highest achievable goal in the regular season anyway.
Jalen Hurts & Co. still have a good shot at earning the No. 1 seed in the NFC as they already hold the tiebreaker against the Minnesota Vikings. The following teams are most likely to finish with the best record in their respective conference:
Beasts from the East
Few people would have seen this coming, but as of now, both the NFC East and the AFC East would have three or even four playoff teams.
The NFC East sends three playoff teams in 89% of our simulations. The AFC East sends three teams to the playoffs 72% of the time.
The East divisions are also the most likely divisions to send all teams to the playoffs. Our simulations see this happening 16.8% of the time for the NFC East and 11.3% of the time for the AFC East.
The disappointing AFC West
At the start of the season, the AFC West was considered the only division strong enough to send all teams to the playoffs. At this point, it seems more like the opposite could be the case as there is a 62% chance that the AFC West will only send the Kansas City Chiefs to the playoffs.
The destined duel
Unless you’re a fan of another AFC playoff contender, chances are you’re anticipating a Patrick Mahomes-Josh Allen game in the playoffs.
The chance of seeing a Bills-Chiefs AFC Championship rematch is currently 20%. The chance of it happening in any of the three playoff weeks before the Super Bowl is 35%.
If those two face each other, it would be played in Arrowhead 72% of the time.